Market Analysis: After all the dust has settled -
Gold losing luster, EUR settling lower, and the YEN rockets above 100!
Economic News for the week of May 13th to
May 17th 2013
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Monday
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Tuesday
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Wednesday
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Thursday
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Friday
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EUR (ALL
DAY) - EuroGroup
USD (1:30 PM
GMT) - Core Retail Sales- month to month
USD (1:30 PM GMT) – Retail Sales month to month
NZD (11:45 PM GMT) - Retail Sales (Quaterly)
|
EUR (10:00
AM) – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
AUD (10:30
AM GMT) Annual Budget Release
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GBP (9:30 AM
GMT) – Claimant Count Change
GBP (10:30
AM GMT) - BOE Gov. King speaks
GBP (10:30
AM GMT) - BOE Inflation Report
CAD (1:30
PM GMT) - Manufacturing Sales month to month
USD (1:30 PM
GMT) - Producer Price Index month to month
|
NZD (3:00 AM
GMT) - Annual Budget Release
USD (1:30 PM
GMT) - Building Permits
USD (1:30 PM
GMT) - Core Price Index month to month
USD (3:00 PM
GMT) - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
|
CAD (1:30 PM
GMT) - Core CPI month to month
USD (2:55 PM
GMT) – Consumer Sentiment
|
It appears that the “sell in
May and go away” advice is being put on hold for the time being. However Market
dynamics being what they are, this warning could manifest at any time. There
are several events that could create changes in market conditions this week
that are worth paying close attention to. More specifically, one should keep an
eye on US Retail Sales data coming out later today. On Wednesday, there will be
German ZEW Economic Sentiment figures and quarterly/yearly GDP numbers. Also on
Wednesday, we’ll hear words from Mr. Mervyn Kind who is the head of the Bank of
England – this should have a wide reaching effect on various markets. Finally,
on Thursday we’ll have both CPI numbers and employment data coming out of the
US.
*For those interested in a more in depth
analysis, we at CM Trading are here to assist those who are interested in
profiting from the financial markets. Below are the charts and the day’s
economic events to better understand the current short term trends in some of
the different markets.
Technial Trading Gameplan for the week of May 13th
until May 17th 2013
EUR/USD
After major economic news
from the previous week, the EURO has finally broken its lower range and has
breached the 1.300 mark. Psychologically, this is a very big number and if the
currency cannot hold itself it may continue this downside trend and retest
1.27.
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RESISTANCE
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R1: 1.29933
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R2: 1.30492
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R3: 1.30866
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SUPPORT
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S1: 1.29645
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S2:
1.29430
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R3: 1.29330
|
USD/JPY
Another really interesting
story that is unfolding is the USDJPY, never have I seen such an aggressive
move from the beginning of the year. The YEN has depreciated vs. the USD more
than 30%!! Clearly with the involvement of the BOJ, the pair will really need
to break above the 105 level in order to hold its bullish trend.
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RESISTANCE
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R1: 102.00
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R2: 103.986
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R3: 104.823
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SUPPORT
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S1: 101.505
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S2: 101.360
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R3: 101.123
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USD/ZAR
After reaching 9.1507 today,
the currency has seen a massive selloff to 9.0937 and appears to have more
steam on the downside to get to support at the 9.0542 level. Regardless of what
it does for the short term, the trading
range of the last 5 months will remain in place as long as it stays between
9.30 and 8.77.
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RESISTANCE
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R1:
9.12899
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R2: 9.14688
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R3: 9.15270
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SUPPORT
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S1: 9.10534
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S2: 9.09957
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R3: 9.08515
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XAU/USD – GOLD
Gold was trading mostly in a
tight range last week bouncing from $1,475 on the upper side and $1,440 on the
lower end, however, last Friday we saw a heavy selloff and it broke its lower
range and settled around $1,423. This should definitely be on your radar to see
if it will settle lower and continue a downward trend.
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RESISTANCE
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R1: $1,434.97
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R2: $1,436.00
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R3: $1,438.84
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SUPPORT
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S1: $1,427.57
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S2: $1,425.90
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R3: $1,419.18
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S & P Futures
The S&P 500
continues to be in a very strong uptrend. This week’s economic events will
either push the index higher or cause a sharp reversal, given that a
strong correction hasn’t occurred in close to 6 months. If the “sell in May”
dictum takes hold, it makes sense to be cautious.
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RESISTANCE
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R1: 1,629.46
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R2:
1,631.63
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R3: new
highs
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SUPPORT
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S1: 1,606.35
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S2: 1,594.80
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R3:
1,569.53
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